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2023/24 global and Chinese cotton market analysis and outlook
——Liu Miao, Grand Flow Resources

2023-07-06 14:27:57

Liu Miao, Manager of research and investment of Grand Flow Resources delivered her speech 2023/24 global and Chinese cotton market analysis and outlook


The report primarily analyzes and forecasts the global and Chinese cotton situation from aspects such as cotton consumption, import and export, as well as textile and apparel import and export in major cotton-producing countries around the world.


From the global supply and demand perspective, the cotton market in the 2023/24 crop year may face reduced production and increased demand, resulting in a tighter market but not a significant supply gap. Ms. Liu expects a slight increase in global cotton production and a recovery in consumption to the levels of the previous year in the 2023/24 season.


In China domestic market, the speculation on weather conditions and planting area has come to a pause for now, and the next focal point on the supply side will be the weather and crop yield during Jul and Aug. Ms. Liu points out that the trading demand during slack season is weak, but the market's interest in the supply side remains higher than the demand side until Dec of this year.


On the international market, there is greater pressure on raw material exports to the United States in the new crop year. The weather in the United States continues to improve, but planting has been delayed. As an exporting country, there will be greater pressure on cotton exports in the new season, but that does not mean there are no speculative themes and opportunities prior to this. The Chinese market still holds expectations. Brazil is also facing relatively great pressure, with stronger impacts from future weather conditions, resulting in a slow export pace for both old and new crops. In India, the monsoon rains have been delayed, leading to a sluggish progress in planting. Overall, both Brazil and India have seen their premiums hit the bottom and start to rebound.


From a global perspective on textile and apparel imports and exports, the EU and Japan are in the process of recovery, but they still have some distance to go to reach historical averages. Ms. Liu believes that in the new season, international markets will see a more competitive free market for end-user exports compared to the past few years. However, it is currently difficult to assess whether China, India, or Southeast Asia will be able to grab a larger share of the market.

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