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Analysis on global economy situation and prediction of RMB exchange rate trend
¡ª¡ªXiao Lisheng, Deputy Director of International Financial Office of Research Institute of World Economics and Politics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2018-06-22 10:21:07
Xiao Lisheng, Deputy Director of International Financial Office of Research Institute of World Economics and Politics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, presented his report of Analysis on global economy situation and prediction of RMB exchange rate trend 

He divided his report into four parts. 

The first part is changes in economy in Q1 2018. The consumption structure improves. Widening gap between the rich and the poor restrains consumer spending temporarily. There is relatively optimistic real estate market, but slow descent risks in infrastructure. Investment in manufacturing industry stabilizes and picks up. 

The second part is logic behind the current economic recovery in the United States and Europe. Investment makes the largest contribution to this round of recovery in US. Net export and investment have contributed greatly to the Eurozone's economic recovery. 

Thirdly, Sino-US trade friction and trend of RMB exchange rate. RMB appreciation has little impact on high-tech industries, and even many industries have achieved simultaneous growth when RMB is appreciating. The appreciation of the RMB has a greater impact on resource-intensive, labor-intensive and agriculture industries. 

Lastly, prospects for monetary policy and financial market. The rebound of high-frequency indicators of the real economy reflects that the share of finance serving real economy in the social financing sector is recovering. 
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