Global cotton supply and demand status & price trend under new policy
2015-06-11
Mr. Li Zhenhua, from CCFGroup, delivers his report Global cotton supply and demand status & price trend under new policy.
Mr. Li鈥檚 presentation is divided into three parts. 1. Changes of cotton supply and demand pattern after China adopts direct subsidy policy. Huge stocks of reserved cotton needs to be consumed and global cotton demand competition becomes more fierce.
2. Current pattern of China and global cotton supply and demand. 2014/15 cotton rigid demand may further slip. Given high inventory of state-reserved cotton, flexible demand remains low, but that for high-grade cotton increases. Cotton market will not rebound much by the end of 2014/15 season, which may be largely flat with that of 2013/14 season. Meanwhile, there is supply surplus in foreign cotton market and the competition with Chinese demand will be reflected by imported yarn. The alternative effect of three major cotton textile raw materials is analyzed and the demand is less likely to flow back to cotton.
3. 2015/16 cotton market forecast. International cotton prices are expected to be stronger in 2015/16 season. China has supply gap of cotton but it faces risks of auction, which also restrains the uptrend of Chinese even global cotton prices.
Mr. Li鈥檚 presentation is divided into three parts. 1. Changes of cotton supply and demand pattern after China adopts direct subsidy policy. Huge stocks of reserved cotton needs to be consumed and global cotton demand competition becomes more fierce.
2. Current pattern of China and global cotton supply and demand. 2014/15 cotton rigid demand may further slip. Given high inventory of state-reserved cotton, flexible demand remains low, but that for high-grade cotton increases. Cotton market will not rebound much by the end of 2014/15 season, which may be largely flat with that of 2013/14 season. Meanwhile, there is supply surplus in foreign cotton market and the competition with Chinese demand will be reflected by imported yarn. The alternative effect of three major cotton textile raw materials is analyzed and the demand is less likely to flow back to cotton.
3. 2015/16 cotton market forecast. International cotton prices are expected to be stronger in 2015/16 season. China has supply gap of cotton but it faces risks of auction, which also restrains the uptrend of Chinese even global cotton prices.